Table of Contents:
- Doug Ford’s Ontario and the reality of housing projections
- Limited effects of funding and stalled municipal targets
- Infrastructure spending and modular housing additions
- Tariffs, timelines and federal coordination
Doug Ford’s Ontario and the reality of housing projections
The Ontario budget for 2025 forecasts a notably restrained pace in new housing construction. According to official projections:
- 71,800 homes are expected to be started in 2025
- 74,800 are forecasted for 2026
- 82,500 in 2027
These figures suggest that by the end of 2026, only approximately 410,000 homes will have been initiated since the original target was announced. This represents less than 30% of the full 1.5 million home goal, even though the province will be more than halfway through the timeline. To bridge the remaining gap, construction would need to surge to an average of 218,000 homes per year from 2027 to 2031—more than double the current pace.
Limited effects of funding and stalled municipal targets
The government's central funding mechanism, the Building Faster Fund, was introduced in 2023 with a budget of 1.2 billion dolarów over three years. It is designed to reward municipalities that meet annual housing construction goals. However, only 280 million dolarów was distributed in 2024, largely because more than half of Ontario’s municipalities failed to reach their targets in 2023.
By October 2024, only 11 out of 50 municipalities had met the required benchmarks. Despite this, no significant revisions to the fund were introduced in the 2025 budget. Additionally, the housing start tracker has not been updated since October 2024, and no public explanation has been provided.
Infrastructure spending and modular housing additions
Two new measures were added to the provincial strategy in the latest budget:
- 400 million dolarów for municipal infrastructure projects such as water mains, intended to support housing development.
- 50 million dolarów spread over five years to expand modular housing capabilities.
These additions, while notable, are insufficient to offset the scale of the construction slowdown. Modular housing, although quicker to assemble, still depends on significant upfront investment and coordination with municipalities.
Tariffs, timelines and federal coordination
Budget documents attribute some of the forecast decline in housing starts to international tariffs, which are claimed to have disrupted construction globally. However, the decline in Ontario began before tariffs were reintroduced by U.S. President Donald Trump. For instance, the 2024 forecast had anticipated 87,900 starts, but the actual figure was just 74,600.
Ontario's government includes new long-term care beds in its count of housing starts, which inflates its progress compared to conventional definitions of residential construction. Officials also expressed hope that cooperation with the federal government under Prime Minister Mark Carney would lead to improved funding conditions, but no specific changes have been announced.
The province’s challenge remains substantial. Without a dramatic acceleration in building activity, Ontario risks falling far short of its 2031 housing goal. Despite the appearance of continued commitment from the government, the figures in its own budget suggest that current strategies may not be enough to reverse the downward trend.
Source: CBC
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